Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Who Can Afford Rick Nash and Roberto Luongo



At the beginning of the 2011-2012 NHL season, nobody would have ever thought names like Rick Nash and Roberto Luongo would be available for trade during the offseason. Fast forward to today and with just a few days looming before the 2012 NHL Entry Draft in Pittsburgh, both names are on the hot seat to be moved. With a weaker free agent class this summer besides Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, many teams are interested. The question is how much will teams have to give up to acquire the contracts to these players? Also, can they afford the big money, long term contracts they carry along?

Rick Nash is considered one of the best power forwards in the league. Back in 2002, he was a first overall pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets, one of the more recent expansion teams the NHL has put forth. With a struggling Blue Jackets team, Nash has done wonders. In his nine seasons playing there, he has seven 30 goal campaigns, two of them reaching into the 40's. His highest point total has been 79 which took place in the 2008-2009 season. He has had some minor injuries in some seasons which has caused setbacks, yet he is still one of the biggest and best power forward in the league coming in at 6'4" and 218 pounds. He is currently on an eight year, 62 million dollar contract which comes out to a cap hit of 7.8 million per year.

Roberto Luongo has always been an upper echelon goaltender. Drafted fourth overall by the New York Islanders in 1997, he only played 24 games in the Islanders uniform, which took place in  1999-2000 before he was moved to the Florida Panthers. This is where Luongo made a name for himself. On a struggling Panthers team for years, Luongo always put up very good numbers, normally facing more shots than any other goaltender each year. More success came with a trade to the Vancouver Canucks. However, with young backup Cory Schneider ready to take over the starting role, Luongo finds himself on the trading block today with a 12 year, 64 million dollar contract which ends in 2022. His cap hit is 5.3 million per year.

Many teams would enjoy having these two players on their teams. However, with hefty contracts and no movement clauses swirling around both players, only a select few teams can be interested in each. When it comes to Nash, he wants out of Columbus and that's well known. He gave a short list of five teams to GM Scott Howsen on where he would waive his movement clause to go to, which are still somewhat unknown. At this point it seems four teams are interested. 

Those four teams are the New York Rangers, San Jose Sharks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Carolina Hurricanes. The Maple Leafs have seemed to drop out of the sweepstakes as of yesterday and Boston seems to be having some cap issues, pushing them out of sight. The frontrunner seems to be the New York Rangers who have Brandon Dubinsky on the trading block. They seem to be willing to part with him, as well as their first round pick, and small handful of prospects. They have made it well known future star Chris Kreider is off limits as well as Michael Del Zotto and Derek Stepan. The other team I think has the assets to trade for Nash is Carolina. With a bunch of young stars emerging, they could include a package with their first round pick, Justin Faulk, and even Brandon Sutter. However, they may also be interested in captain Eric Staal's brother, Jordan, from the Penguins. The Flyers, after hearing James Van Riemsdyk is healthy, have thrown his name into the mix. The Sharks, again, are interested but will probably not be able to contend with the other teams interested. 

After Steve Yzerman traded for Anders Lindback this past week, Tampa Bay seems to be out of the mix for a starting goalie. They may try to bring in someone who could split games with Lindback, but are hoping these cheaper options will work. Josh Harding is one of those names who may make their way down to Tampa. The only other team I could see going for Luongo at this point is Toronto. After being a playoff team for most of the season, a rough stretch of goaltending between both netminders sent them packing. Jonas Gustavsson is a free agent and will not be returning. Therefore, it's James Reimer. GM Brian Burke is always looking to change something up. Therefore, I feel he has the most interest in bring Luongo in. If something doesn't change in Toronto soon, Burke may find himself jobless sooner rather than later. The other team who could contend for Luongo is the Blue Jackets, but it's highly unlikely Luongo would waive his no movement clause to go to a team who is not even close to a playoff contender. 

In any case, Friday night marks the 2012 NHL Draft. With picks being used at the time, the likelihood of one of both of these players moving is high. The other name mentioned that has been swirling is Jordan Staal, a third line center for the Penguins but easily a first or second line center elsewhere. It's just three days away from the draft and with a weaker free agency class coming just a week later, who is going to pull the trigger? My guess is that before Friday Rick Nash is out of Columbus. I believe he will end up with the Rangers or Flyers. Luongo, on the other hand, is hard to tell and I don't think he will be traded before Friday. When and/or if he does get traded, I expect him to be a Maple Leaf.  

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